Projected future suitable habitat and productivity of Douglas-fir in western North America

Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco) is one of the most common and commercially important species in western North America. The species can occupy a range of habitats, is long-lived (up to 500 years), and highly productive. However, the future of Douglas-fir in western North America is highly uncertain due to the expected changes in climate conditions. This analysis presents a summary of work that utilizes an extensive network of inventory plots to project potential future changes in Douglas-fir habitat and productivity. By 2090, the amount of potential Douglas-fir habitat is projected to change little in terms of area (–4%). However, the habitat is expected to shift from coastal areas of North America to the interior. Corresponding changes in productivity are also projected as coastal areas experience reductions, while interior areas experience modest increases in productivity. Overall, the analysis indicates a sensitivity of Douglas-fir to climate and suggests that significant changes in North America are to be expected under climate change.